I love election nights. I love them more than discussing policy. Analyzing, extrapolating and examining incoming election returns, stimulates my mind in a way I cannot describe.
Here are my projections, along with the methodology behind them, of how things will shape up in the New Hampshire primary for the Republicans.
1st – Mitt Romney
Final RCP average: 37.5%
2008 result: 31.5% (pre-election poll average 28.2%)
In Iowa, Romney outperformed his pre-election polling average by 9.3%. In 2008’s New Hampshire primary he jumped up by 9% in the final results. The last three New Hampshire polls have Romney at 37, 37 and 35. This is an easy one. Most of the jump is from undecided committing to the frontrunner.
Romney prediction: 40.3%
2nd – Jon Huntsman
Final RCP average: 14.5%
We can’t look at Huntsman’s Iowa performance to see how he might outperform or underperform his pre-election polling. He essentially forfeited the hawkeye state and choose to focus on New Hampshire. The top two finalists in the 2008 primary outperformed their pre-election polls by an average of 9.1%. Even though Ron Paul is running second right now, he’s unlikely to get that kind of bump. If it happens for Hunstman, he should come in a distant second to Romney.
Huntsman prediction: 17.8%
3rd – Ron Paul
Final RCP average: 17.5%
2008 result: 7.7% (8.2% in pre-election polls)
Ron Paul’s final Iowa result was within 0.1% of his pre-election polling. In New Hampshire his negatives are running very high as he’s topping a 50% unfavorable rating in most of the polls for which crosstabs are available. There’s a clear cap to his support and it’s probably over estimated in the NH polls.
Paul prediction: 17.6%
4th – Rick Santorum
Final RCP average: 11.5%
Rick Santorum needs a strong finish in NH to carry him to a possible game-changing victory in South Carolina. It’s going to be difficult for him to get it tonight. Since his second place finish in Iowa his numbers in NH are up about 80%, but that still puts him in fourth place. What should give us pause is that he outpefromed his pre-Iowa polling by 66%. That’s going to be hard to duplicate in NH, because Huntsman is running a strong third and Romney is eating up so much support. Santorum is very similar to Huckabee from 2008 (surprised in Iowa, similar appeal and then struggles to capitalize on it in NH). Huckbee’s 2008 NH finish was a drop off of 8.2% (from 12.2% to 11.2%). Santorum’s possible drop off will compensated by his momentum from NH. He’s going to stay even.
Santorum projection: 12.2%
5th – New Gingrich
Final RCP average: 10.3%
Gingrich’s support has dropped off a cliff. One month ago he was polling at 24% in NH. Now he’s at less than half of that.
He’s similar to Rudy Guiliani from 2008 (front runner for awhile, dropped off in Iowa, struggles continue into NH). Rudy lost about 9% from his pre-election polls to his final number. The same thing is likely for Newt.
Gingrich projection: 9.4%
The Knuckle Curve 