A Fool’s Baseball Predictions

“It measures just 9 inches in circumference, weighs only about 5 ounces, and it is made of cork wound with woolen yarn, covered with two layers of cowhide, and stiched by hand precisely 216 times.
It travels 60 feet 6 inches from the pitcher’s mound to home–and it can cover that distance at nearly 100 miles an hour. Along the way it can be made to twist, spin, curve, wobble, rise, or fall away.
The bat is made of turned ash, less than 42 inches long, not more than 2 3/4 inches in diameter. The batter has only a few thousandths of a second to decide to hit the ball. And yet the men who fail seven times out of ten are considered the game’s greatest heroes.
It is played everywhere. In parks and playground and prison yards. In back alleys and farmers fields. By small children and by old men. By raw amateurs and millionare professionals. It is a leisurely game that demands blinding speed. The only game where the defense has the ball. It follows the seasons, beginning each year with the fond expectancy of springtime and ending with the hard facts of autumn.
Americans have played baseball for more than 200 years, while they conquered a continent, warred with one another and with enemies abroad, struggled over labor and civil rights and the meaning of freedom.
At the games’s heart lie mythic contradictions: a pastoral game, born in crowded cities; an exhilarating democratic sport that tolerates cheating and has excluded as many as it has included; a profoundly conservative game that sometimes manages to be years ahead of its time.
It is an American odyssey that links sons and daughters to father and grandfathers. And it reflects a host of age-old American tensions: between workers and owners, scandal and reform, the individual and the collective.
It is a haunted game, where each player is measured by the ghosts of those who have gone before. Most of all, it is about time and timelessness, speed and grace, failure and loss, imperishable hope, and coming home.”

Baseball is back.

Anyone who makes predictions about a complex system like the baseball season is a fool. We only talk about our predictions when they come true. Here are this fool’s predictions:

AL East                                  AL Central                       AL West
Yankees                                Tigers                                Angels
Red Soxs*                            Indians*                           Rangers
Blue Jays                              Royals                              Athletics
Rays                                      White Sox                        Mariners
Orioles                                  Twins

NL East                                 NL Central                    NL West
Phillies                                  Brewers                         Dodgers
Marlins                                 Cardinals*                     Diamondbacks*
Braves                                   Reds                               Giants
Nationals                             Cubs                                Rockies
Mets                                      Pirates                            Padres
Astros

*indicates a Wild Card team

AL MVP: Prince Fielder
AL Cy Young: C.J. Wilson

NL MVP: Matt Kemp
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels

AL Champion: Tigers
NL Champion: Cardinals

World Series Champion: Tigers

Blame of A-Rod is Ignorant and Inaccurate

The paradox of baseball is that in almost every situation failure is the expected outcome.

Alex Rodriguez has a career on-base percentage of .386. His career post-season OBP is very similar (wait, A-Rod isn’t a post season failure – don’t worry we’ll get to that). The probability of A-Rod making an out is 61.4%. His chances of not making an out are 38.6%. These are incredibly reliable numbers, since they are result of 6034 plate appearances between Rodriguez and opposing pitchers.

The expected outcome for every Alex Rodriguez at-bat is an out.

Think of it this way, if you were to gamble on an event and I told you one choice had 60% chance of occurring and the other a 40% chance, you’d put your money on the event with a 60% chance.

All offensive success in baseball revolves around the unexpected. A single up the middle gets the fans clapping. A home run, which occurred in 2.4% of all plate appearances in 2011, often elicits the largest cheer because it’s the most unexpected and has the highest impact.

The improbability of the high impact event is what makes its occurrence so exciting.

When Jose Valverde struck out Alex Rodriguez in the 9^th inning last night, that was the expected outcome.  It was the expected income when Curtis Granderson flew out to center for the first out and when Robbie Cano hacked at the first pitch of his at-bat for the easy second out.

Is it disappointing for the fans? Of course it is. It should be.

But A-Rod is still just one of nine men in the line-up, one of nine men on the field and completely removed from the pitching aspect of the game.  It’s beyond absurd to lay the blame for the Yankees lose at the feet of Rodriguez.

It’s been claimed for years that A-Rod chokes in the post-season. This is absolutely not true. It’s not even remotely accurate. This is a lazy and ignorant claim because it’s simple to refute by examining history.

.277/.386/.498 5.2% HR rate
.307/.374/.465 2.8% HR rate
.275/.371/.480 4.0% HR rate
.248/.358/.387 2.2% HR rate

These numbers are career post-season batting lines (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage). If you had to choose one of these players to extend a game by not making an out, who would you choose?

Be honest.

Alex Rodriquez is the first player. Derek Jeter is second, Bernie Williams is third and Jorge Posada is last. Not only does A-Rod give your team the best chance of getting on base (and thus extending game) but he gives you the best chance of scoring a run via a home run.

But you say, A-Rod might have great overall numbers but he sucked this year, right?

Yes, A-Rod’s 2 for 18 series, where he drew four walks, wasn’t pretty. His OBP was only .261. Of course the Yankees lead-off hitter wasn’t much better.

Derek Jeter managed to draw just one walk. His five singles and one double resulted in a .280 OBP.  Not exactly what you want from your table setter or a guy who had a .327/.383/.428 line in the second half of the year.

But, you might say, we can forgive Jeter because he’s come through in so many big games.

Remember 2009, when he hit had a line of .389/.472/.841 and hit six home runs, including three in the ALCS and clearly helped the Yankees to another title?

Well you don’t, because that’s what Alex Rodriguez did. Those are his numbers from ’09.

Alex Rodriguez is not the problem. A flawed perception of baseball and lack of knowledge about postseason history is the real problem.